People are arguing right and left about when, how, and why to reopen the economy and advise people to go back to work and to living their public and social lives. You can read this opinion, Coronavirus Lessons by William Bennett and Seth Leibsohn. Or you can read this response in National Review, The Absurd Case Against the Coronavirus Lockdown by Rich Lowry.
I am arguing for neither immediate opening up of our social and economic lives nor for continued near-complete lockdown, but it seems to me that the arguments people are using for either action are extremely flawed. First of all, if I understand the actions we have taken as a society so far, we have prevented some unknowable number of deaths by staying home and not overwhelming unprepared hospitals with massive numbers of covid patients all at the same time. We have “flattened the curve” to some extent and prevented the escalation of new cases that would overwhelm the health care system and cause people to die without treatment of not only covid but also other diseases and injuries that are a normal part of life and might get “crowded out” in a crisis situation. There is really no way to know how many lives have been saved by the lockdown and other measures to date.
However, as far as deaths due to Covid-19, we have only postponed many of those deaths. We have not saved the lives of those who will continue to be infected and have very bad outcomes. If you “flatten the curve” you don’t change the overall numbers. You just stretch those numbers out over time, right? (Unless a vaccine or more effective treatments come along, pronto.) So we have saved lives by allowing hospitals to be supplied and to be less crowded, but many of those who haven’t been infected with covid will still become infected in the future when the lockdown is ended, and some of those will still die. And we still don’t have a good handle on what that death rate will be, how many deaths per number of people infected. There is some evidence that the death rate itself is very low because the number of people actually infected is much higher than we have been able to test and confirm, maybe as much as 50 or even 100 times as many people infected and recovered as have been tested and confirmed to have the virus.
We can’t wait forever to allow people to go back to work (and worship and even play), so when will the risk of complete societal and economic collapse outweigh the risk of massive infection and death from covid? I don’t know, and neither do you. I think all of the governors and mayors and even the president and vice-president are trying to figure that out the best they know how. And we need to to decide as individuals and as a society how much risk we can tolerate and how long we can survive in shutdown mode. Different states and different individuals will come to different decisions concerning this issue. Some will consider others’ decisions to be imprudent, foolish, or even cowardly.
We need to give each other grace. Trust yourself, your neighbors, and even your governing authorities to make the best decisions they can. Pray and make the best decisions you can for yourself and your own family. And quit sniping at each other for disagreeing. Yes, these are important issues, even matters of life and death. But it won’t help to make them into issues of partisan hatred and name-calling.